Prospects for Security in the Mediterranean by Robert O'Neill

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By Robert O'Neill

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However, the new leadership, which did not experience the race to build up Soviet strength in the 19 30s to deter German aggression or the war that marked the failure of that attempt, is likely to find it easier than its predecessors to relax the cbnstraints of military requirements. It is in this context that the much vaunted 'new thinking' must be assessed. It is the logical extension of a trend that started more than 30 years ago and began to gather significant momentum in the 1970s. Driven by the need to restructure the Soviet political economy, the new leadership has shown its readiness to push the logic of the changed military requirements to their fullest conclusions.

The Soviets would now need to hold in the east, hold in the west, fight to the south, and possibly also to the south-west. Meanwhile Soviet leaders and planners had to be prepared for the possibility that the conflict would not be contained, and be ready to revert to their contingency plan for world war, involving an offensive into Western Europe. The establishment of these High Commands in 1984 is not conclusive evidence, since the command structure had been under discussion since the second half of the 1970s.

But the Soviet Union has also supported national liberation movements, and has been concerned to increase its clients' ability to defend themselves against external intervention, thus raising the costs to the West of using military force to rectify unfavourable developments. But the Soviet Union has been careful not to supply arms that would allow a client state to achieve large results in relation to the international status quo. And rather than urge a client to resort to force against another state, Soviet leaders have usually only acceded to the clients' determination to do so.

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